China Solar PV Exports Hit Record 68 GW in March 2026, Driven by Tax Rebate Deadline and Global Energy Demand
Date: June 30, 2026 | Global Trade Update
China’s solar photovoltaic (PV) product exports reached a record 68 GW in March 2026, according to the latest data from independent energy think tank Ember, equivalent to the entire operational solar capacity of Spain. The surge was driven by a combination of the upcoming end of VAT export rebates on April 1, front-loaded shipments to overseas hubs, and a spike in demand from markets affected by the Middle East energy crisis.
Key Highlights:
- Record-Breaking Volume: Total exports of modules, cells, and wafers doubled in a single month, from February to March 2026, and exceeded 60 GW for the first time on record. Customs data cited by Reuters placed the value of solar panel exports in March at $3.61 billion, up 125% month-on-month and 67% year-on-year.
- Regional Shift: Asia-Pacific overtook Europe as the largest destination, importing 13.82 GW (37% of total) compared with Europe’s 13.05 GW (35%). The Americas and Africa each received around 4.4 GW, while the Middle East imported 1.62 GW. Australia, France, India, Italy, Japan, and the United States all set all-time monthly records for Chinese solar imports.
- Africa Emerges as a Growth Engine: Exports to Africa rose 176% month-on-month, led by Nigeria (+519%), Ethiopia (+391%), and Kenya (+207%), each importing more than 1 GW for the first time. Trade analysts attribute the surge to large East Asian manufacturers setting up cell and module assembly bases in Egypt and other African countries to serve regional demand and circumvent US trade barriers.
Policy and Market Context:
China announced in January 2026 that it would eliminate VAT export rebates for PV products effective April 1, a change widely expected to trigger front-loaded shipments. InfoLink senior analyst Amy Fang noted that the March figures clearly reflect concentrated shipments ahead of the policy switch, with both modules and cells recording strong growth. S&P Global analyst Jessica Jin added that the surge was closely tied to rebate removal and improved supplier margins from temporarily lower silver prices, though some shipments were directed to overseas manufacturing bases or transit hubs rather than immediate end markets.
Upstream components are now accounting for a larger share of exports: cell and wafer shipments first exceeded module shipments in October 2025, and between February and March 2026 cell and wafer exports rose 108% to 36 GW. The China Chamber of Commerce for Import and Export of Machinery and Electronic Products (CCCME) has stated that PV exports will continue to grow through 2026, with trends toward market diversification, product upgrading, integrated cooperation, and deeper compliance.
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